锚定能源强国建设目标 提升天然气在新型能源体系中的价值

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the construction of a new energy system aligned with the "dual carbon" goals and energy security strategy, highlighting natural gas as a key player in this transition, serving dual roles in supporting transformation and ensuring security [2][4]. Group 1: Natural Gas as a Key Player in Energy Transition - Natural gas is positioned as a major force in replacing high-carbon energy sources, with significant advantages in carbon emission intensity and minimal pollution compared to coal and oil [3]. - In industrial sectors such as metallurgy and chemicals, natural gas has substantial potential to replace coal, with current coal consumption in China's industrial sector at approximately 790 million tons per year, leading to over 1.4 billion tons of CO2 emissions [4]. - The "coal-to-gas" initiative in residential heating has shown significant results, with Beijing's coal consumption dropping from 20.19 million tons in 2013 to less than 600,000 tons by 2024, while natural gas consumption doubled to 19.5 billion cubic meters, accounting for one-third of the city's total energy consumption [4]. Group 2: Enhancing System Resilience with Natural Gas - Natural gas power generation's flexibility addresses the intermittency and volatility of renewable energy sources, making it an essential partner for the development of renewables [5][6]. - In regions with high renewable energy installations, gas power plants have been observed to start and stop over 300 times a year, showcasing their superior adjustment capabilities compared to coal [5]. - By 2025, China's installed capacity for wind and solar is expected to exceed 1.8 billion kilowatts, necessitating increased reliance on gas for peak load support during periods of low renewable output [6]. Group 3: Natural Gas as a Pillar of Energy Security - Natural gas is crucial for energy security, with China's resources being relatively abundant, including the addition of 19 new large gas fields during the 14th Five-Year Plan, expected to yield 260 billion cubic meters by 2025 [7][8]. - The construction of pipelines and LNG facilities enhances import capacity and supply resilience, with the East Route pipeline projected to transport over 120 billion cubic meters by 2030 [8]. - A comprehensive storage system, including 40 operational gas storage facilities, is expected to reach a capacity of 80 billion cubic meters by 2030, ensuring rapid response during supply fluctuations [8]. Group 4: Driving Strategic Implementation through Innovation and Cooperation - The industry must focus on technological innovation to enhance domestic production and competitiveness, with an emphasis on optimizing traditional oil and gas operations alongside accelerating the transition to renewables [9]. - A rational pricing mechanism is essential to stimulate market demand, with projections indicating that domestic natural gas prices will remain high, potentially limiting growth if not addressed [10]. - Strengthening international cooperation, particularly in resource-rich countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, will expand development opportunities and enhance China's influence in the global natural gas market [11].