Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-15 01:42Group 1: Copper - The main copper futures in Shanghai retreated to 103,660 yuan, while London copper hovered around 13,311 USD [2][12] - The macroeconomic outlook is neutral, with the US November PPI and core PPI year-on-year growth at 3%, slightly above expectations, and a minor adjustment in interest rate cut expectations [2][12] - The increase in copper warehouse receipts by 27,000 tons to 149,000 tons indicates a rise in inventory, while weak consumer demand continues to pressure prices [2][12] - Overall, copper prices are expected to maintain high volatility supported by pre-holiday stocking, with a reference range of 102,500 to 104,500 yuan per ton for the main futures [2][12] Group 2: Nickel & Stainless Steel - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced an adjustment of nickel ore RKAB quotas to 250-260 million tons by 2026, providing short-term support for nickel prices [3][13] - The nickel market lacks further supply-demand contradictions, and the tightening quota expectations have already been priced in [3][13] - The operational strategy for nickel and stainless steel is currently to remain on the sidelines, with reference ranges for nickel at 140,000 to 165,000 yuan per ton and stainless steel at 14,000 to 15,000 yuan per ton [3][13] Group 3: Aluminum - The price of alumina has shown a slight decline, with the 05 contract experiencing high opening and low closing, facing pressure from multiple moving averages [16][17] - The overall supply of alumina has slightly increased to around 96 million tons, but the market sentiment remains weak due to high prices affecting downstream consumption [16][17] - The operational range for the 05 alumina contract is set between 2,500 to 2,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold short positions [16][17] Group 4: Zinc - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, with macroeconomic indicators such as the US November PPI and retail sales exceeding expectations, creating a mixed market sentiment [19] - Domestic TC prices have shown signs of slowing down, with low acceptance for prices below 1,000 yuan, while overseas prices are also declining [19] - The operational strategy for zinc is to take profits on highs, with the main contract expected to trade between 24,500 to 25,500 yuan per ton [19] Group 5: Lead - Lead prices are experiencing strong fluctuations, with supply-side pressures easing slightly due to adjustments in primary smelter maintenance plans [20][21] - The recycling of waste batteries is expected to decline, impacting the supply of recycled lead, while consumer acceptance of new vehicle models is decreasing [20][21] - The operational range for lead is set between 17,000 to 18,000 yuan per ton, with a recommendation for range trading [20][21] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals are showing mixed performance, with gold and platinum slightly rising, while silver continues to break through strongly, and palladium shows a soft decline [10][22] - The market is influenced by concerns over the weakening independence of the Federal Reserve and the delayed decision on Trump's tariff policy by the US Supreme Court [10][22] - The operational strategy suggests holding long positions in gold while remaining cautious with silver, platinum, and palladium, with reference ranges for gold at 1,010 to 1,060 yuan per gram and silver at 22,000 to 24,500 yuan per kilogram [10][22]