华泰期货：估值偏低，锌价表现相对偏强

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that zinc prices are showing a strong trend, despite a decrease in downstream orders and procurement enthusiasm in the spot market [3][10] Group 1: Important Data - LME zinc spot premium is at -19.35 USD/ton, while SMM Shanghai zinc spot price has changed by 240 CNY/ton to 24,570 CNY/ton, with a premium of 50 CNY/ton [2][9] - As of January 14, 2026, SMM zinc ingot inventory totals 118,300 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous period, and LME zinc inventory is at 106,725 tons, down by 175 tons from the previous trading day [2][9] Group 2: Market Analysis - The zinc price is currently strong, but the spot market is experiencing weaker downstream orders and lower procurement enthusiasm, leading to a slight decline in spot premiums [3][10] - Smelters are seeing a slight increase in raw material inventory, which is affecting the procurement enthusiasm for domestic ore, while the import ore treatment charge (TC) continues to decline [3][10] - The overall profit for smelters is difficult to restore, and there is a possibility that first-quarter production may fall short of expectations, which could lead to a continued decrease in supply pressure [3][10] Group 3: Strategy - The strategy for trading is cautiously bullish, indicating a positive outlook on zinc prices despite current market conditions [4][11] Group 4: Arbitrage - The arbitrage strategy is neutral, suggesting a balanced approach to trading in the current market environment [5][12]