智通财经网·2026-01-15 01:58Core Viewpoint - Oriental Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988), predicting revenue for FY2026-2028 to be 1,030.7 billion, 1,143.2 billion, and 1,251.8 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 91.6 billion, 135.8 billion, and 176.1 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 35,656 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 207.7 HKD, driven by AI in Alibaba Cloud and a steady reduction in losses in e-commerce despite industry challenges [1]. E-commerce Sector - The e-commerce industry is experiencing a slowdown, with a projected CMR of 1,054.8 billion yuan for FY26Q3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The overall growth rate has declined due to high base effects and policy impacts, with online retail growth rates of 4.9% and 1.5% in October and November 2025 respectively, showing significant month-on-month declines [2]. - The instant retail business is expected to incur losses of around 21.5 billion yuan in FY26Q3, with an average loss per order of 3.7 yuan. However, there is a notable improvement in user engagement and order structure, indicating a healthy trend. The Taobao flash sales are crucial for user retention and traffic within the ecosystem, and the company remains committed to maintaining market share [3]. Cloud Intelligence Group - The Cloud Intelligence Group is expected to achieve revenue of 434.9 billion yuan in FY26Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.0%. The growth is driven by AI demand, with significant investments in AI applications since Q3 2025. Alibaba Cloud, as the only full-stack AI cloud provider in China, is anticipated to benefit from a flywheel effect that boosts both revenue and profit [4]. Other Segments - The AIDC segment is projected to incur a loss of 1.89 billion yuan in FY26Q3 due to increased promotional spending. However, the segment is expected to continue its trend of reducing losses. Overall losses for other segments are estimated at 7.12 billion yuan, primarily due to increased spending on AI model training and new AI applications [5]. AI Application Development - Alibaba's strong capabilities in model development are being enhanced, with new models expected to be released throughout 2026. The company is focusing on expanding AI application scenarios, which is anticipated to empower other business areas within its ecosystem [6].