PX：高估值且下游计划进一步减产 PX反弹承压

Group 1: Spot Market - On January 14, Asian PX prices experienced a slight decline after an initial increase, with prices affected by geopolitical factors and poor fundamentals [1] - The market sentiment was generally weak, with February and March spot month differentials at -6/-5 and -2/-1 respectively [1] - The last trades for February and March Asian spot PX were at 896 and 893/899 respectively [1] Group 2: Profitability - On January 14, Asian PX prices fell by $2/ton to $897/ton, equivalent to a domestic price of 7250 RMB/ton [1] - PXN was reported at approximately $337/ton [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand - As of January 9, domestic PX operating rates reached 90.9% (+0.3%), while Asian PX operating rates were at 81.3% (+0.4%) [1] - As of January 8, PTA operating rates were at 78.2% [1] Group 4: Market Outlook - High profitability has led to increased production rates at PX plants, with both domestic and Asian PX operating rates at historical highs [1] - Demand has been declining post-New Year, leading to increased pressure on polyester factories, with new rounds of production cuts for polyester filament initiated [1] - The overall supply-demand balance for PX and PTA is expected to weaken in the first quarter, with PX prices anticipated to fluctuate at high levels before the Spring Festival [1] - In the second quarter, a tighter supply-demand outlook is expected, limiting the downside potential for PX prices [1] - Short-term PX prices are projected to oscillate between 7000-7500 RMB, with a medium-term bullish strategy suggested [1]