Why the SMH ETF Could Be a Core AI Investment for 2026

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is initiating a significant infrastructure investment cycle in the technology sector, with 90% of AI investors planning to maintain or increase their exposure in the next year [2] - Global AI-related data center capital expenditures are projected to reach $527 billion by 2026, primarily benefiting a select group of semiconductor companies [3] Investment Opportunity - The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) offers concentrated exposure to leading AI companies, with its top five holdings accounting for approximately 49.8% of its assets, providing investors with a diversified yet focused investment in the AI sector [5] - SMH has demonstrated robust performance, achieving a 49% gain in 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 16.4% return [6] Long-term Growth Potential - The shift from training large language models to inference workloads is expected to drive AI compute demand, with inference projected to account for two-thirds of total demand by 2026, indicating sustained growth for hardware such as GPUs and memory chips [9] - SMH's long-term track record shows annualized returns of around 30.9% over the past decade, outperforming the S&P 500's 12.9% annualized return during the same period [8] Valuation Metrics - Currently, SMH is trading at nearly 33 times trailing-12-month earnings, aligning with the price-to-earnings multiples of many large-cap tech stocks, making it a suitable choice for investors seeking AI exposure without selecting individual stocks [10]