刘世锦：人民币进入升值通道利大于弊，中长期将促进生产率提升与竞争优势迭代

Core Viewpoint - The "Sina Finance 2025 Conference and the 18th Golden Unicorn Forum" will be held on January 15, 2026, in Beijing, focusing on the theme of "Starting the 14th Five-Year Plan, New Economic Voyage - Reshaping Growth Paradigms, Co-creating Future Prosperity" [1][6]. Group 1: Foreign Trade Insights - Despite a challenging international environment, China's exports have shown strong momentum this year, reflecting improvements in technology and industrial competitiveness [3][8]. - A significant trade deficit indicates a reduction in domestic consumption, which is one of the reasons for insufficient domestic demand. This trend is unsustainable in the long term [3][8]. - It is recommended that China implement a basic balance strategy for imports and exports, enhancing export competitiveness while expanding imports and increasing the use of the Renminbi for payment settlements [3][8]. Group 2: Renminbi and Economic Strategy - There is a notable disparity between the proportion of Renminbi foreign reserves and the proportion of foreign trade, indicating a need to shift from retaining foreign exchange to using Renminbi for settlements [5][10]. - Currently, the manufacturing sector accounts for about 30% of the economy, but the monetary function's share is below 5%, which needs to be addressed to align with China's global economic share [5][10]. - The goal is to elevate the Renminbi to become a strong international currency, facilitating its appreciation and sharing the international premium of China's large-scale economy [5][10]. - The transition to a Renminbi appreciation channel is expected to have more benefits than drawbacks, potentially impacting exports in the short term but enhancing productivity and competitive advantages in the medium to long term [5][10].