光大期货0115黄金点评：地缘局势持续紧张，金价延续偏强运行

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of gold prices and the economic indicators from the United States, highlighting the resilience of consumer spending and the potential impact of geopolitical tensions on gold prices [2][5]. Economic Indicators - COMEX gold prices closed at $4633.9 per ounce, with a gain of 0.76%, while SHFE gold prices closed at 1039.72 yuan per gram, up 0.46% [2][5]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 0.6% month-over-month increase in retail sales for November, surpassing the expected 0.5% [2][5]. - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) indicated that December's existing home sales totaled an annualized 4.35 million units, the highest level since February 2023, exceeding expectations of 4.22 million and the previous value of 4.13 million [2][5]. - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book noted improvements in the overall economy across most regions, with stable employment levels and moderate price increases [2][5]. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the future path of interest rate cuts, but a majority supports not lowering rates in January [2][5]. - The slight recovery of the U.S. dollar index suggests that expectations for rate cuts may not provide substantial upward momentum for gold prices [2][5]. Geopolitical Factors - Multiple governments have advised their citizens to evacuate Iran, with former President Trump indicating a wait-and-see approach regarding the situation [2][5]. - The escalating tensions in Iran may keep gold prices strong in the short term, especially in the context of the Federal Reserve's potential pause on interest rate cuts [2][5].