美联储内部分歧加剧 米兰抛出降息新逻辑：特朗普松绑监管就是理由

Core Viewpoint - The relaxation of regulations by the Trump administration is seen as a significant basis for the Federal Reserve to implement further interest rate cuts, which could enhance market competitiveness and economic growth without increasing inflationary pressures [1]. Group 1: Regulatory Relaxation and Economic Impact - The current push for regulatory relaxation is expected to significantly boost market competitiveness, labor productivity, and potential economic growth, facilitating faster economic expansion without raising inflation [1]. - Milan estimates that by mid-2025, 30% of regulatory restrictions in the Federal Regulations Code will be eliminated by 2030 due to the Trump administration's efforts [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Milan advocates for rapid implementation of substantial interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, arguing that the current monetary policy stance is unnecessarily restrictive [1]. - He predicts that the large-scale deregulation measures expected to be implemented by 2025 will create strong positive impacts on productivity, thereby suppressing price increases and encouraging a more accommodative monetary policy stance [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Internal Challenges - The Federal Reserve is currently facing a criminal investigation by the Department of Justice, which is related to the renovation of its Washington headquarters and Powell's testimony to Congress regarding the project [3]. - Milan believes that this investigation will not materially affect inflation expectations and views it as inconsequential noise in the broader economic context [3]. - He disagrees with the notion that the investigation could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence or raise inflation expectations and market rates in the long term [3].