棕榈油12月MPOB报告解读：利空消化后反弹，1月或涨势延续

Core Insights - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) released the December 2025 palm oil supply and demand data, indicating a month-on-month decline in production but remaining at historically high levels. The report showed slightly higher-than-expected ending stocks, leading to a bearish market impact. However, following the report, palm oil prices rebounded as market negativity was priced in, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics in January 2026 [2][17]. Production Data - December 2025 palm oil production was 1.8298 million tons, down 5.46% month-on-month but up 23.07% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 1.76 million tons. The production remains significantly above the five-year average [4][19]. - The production decline was uneven across regions: Peninsular Malaysia saw a 13.61% decrease to 900,400 tons, while production in Sabah remained stable, and Sarawak experienced a 5.35% decline [4][19]. Export and Consumption - December 2025 palm oil exports increased to 1.3165 million tons, up 8.52% month-on-month, surpassing market estimates but still below the five-year average. Cumulatively, exports for 2025 totaled 15.26 million tons, a decline of 9.27% year-on-year [8][23]. - Domestic consumption fell to 331,400 tons, down 20.89% month-on-month, indicating limited domestic demand [17][23]. Inventory Levels - As of the end of December, palm oil stocks rose to 3.0506 million tons, a 7.58% increase from the previous month and a 78.53% increase year-on-year, marking the highest level in five years. This was above market expectations of 2.97 to 3.01 million tons [9][24]. - The high inventory levels are attributed to sustained high production, contributing to ongoing supply pressure in the market [9][24]. Price Outlook - Despite high inventory levels, the market is expected to see a gradual improvement in palm oil prices due to a potential decrease in stocks in January 2026, driven by reduced production and a recovery in exports. The forecast for January 2026 domestic palm oil prices is between 8,650 and 8,900 CNY per ton, with an average expected price of 8,790 CNY per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.69% [12][27].