温彬：进出口高位收官，2026出口有望量稳质升

Core Viewpoint - China's export scale in December 2025 exceeded expectations, setting a historical monthly export record, while imports also reached a high point since 2022 [3][2]. Group 1: Import and Export Growth - In December 2025, China's total import and export value reached $601.42 billion, with a cumulative annual total of $635.48 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [2]. - Monthly exports amounted to $357.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, while annual exports totaled $3.77 trillion, up 5.5% [2]. - Monthly imports were $243.64 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, with annual imports at $2.58 trillion, remaining flat compared to the previous year [2]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Export Growth - Three main factors supported the high growth in exports: seasonal overseas stocking demand, AI-driven semiconductor industry growth, and steady international economic recovery [3]. - Seasonal demand from overseas retailers ahead of Christmas led to increased orders in consumer electronics, toys, and small appliances, contributing to a monthly export growth of 8.4% in December [3]. - The AI boom significantly boosted the semiconductor supply chain, with integrated circuit exports surging by 47.4%, and overall machinery and electronics product exports growing by 12.1% [3]. Group 3: International Economic Recovery - The global manufacturing PMI recorded 50.4 in December 2025, indicating a steady recovery in the international economy, with mixed performance among major economies [4]. - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, while the Eurozone and Japan showed slight declines, and South Korea's PMI rose to 50.1, reflecting a rebound in exports [4]. Group 4: Export Performance by Region - Exports to the U.S. in December 2025 were $34.2 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 30%, influenced by high base effects and tariff expectations [7]. - Exports to the EU reached $51.9 billion, the highest for the year, with an 11.6% year-on-year increase, driven by seasonal demand for consumer goods [7]. - Exports to ASEAN countries totaled $66.4 billion, also the highest for the year, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2% [9]. Group 5: Import Trends - Imports from the U.S. continued to decline for ten consecutive months, with a year-on-year drop of 28.7% in December 2025 [10]. - Imports from ASEAN countries fell by 5.3%, while imports from other regions, including Hong Kong and Japan, showed growth [10]. - High-tech product imports increased by 13.5%, indicating a diverse performance across various categories [15]. Group 6: Export Structure Improvement - The export structure continued to improve, with machinery and electronics leading the growth, particularly in automotive and semiconductor sectors [13]. - Exports of integrated circuits increased by 47.7%, with both volume and price rising [14]. - Labor-intensive products continued to decline, although the rate of decline has narrowed for some categories [14].