Huan Qiu Wang·2026-01-15 03:52Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor market in China is experiencing unprecedented price fluctuations, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye seeing significant declines in wholesale and retail prices, indicating a shift away from the long-standing growth model based on price increases and inventory accumulation [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The wholesale price of 53-degree Moutai has dropped to 1545-1550 RMB per bottle, with some e-commerce platforms offering prices as low as 1399 RMB, breaking the official guidance price of 1499 RMB [1] - The overall market for high-end liquor is undergoing a systemic reshaping focused on "de-bubbling, de-stocking, and returning to real consumption" [1][4] - The liquor index has underperformed in the A-share market, with a cumulative decline of over 15% this year, leading to a total industry market value of 3.03 trillion RMB [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - Major liquor companies have reported significant performance slowdowns, with Wuliangye's quarterly revenue dropping over 50% year-on-year, and overall industry sales down by 20% to 30% [2][4] - The industry is facing high inventory pressure, with distributors struggling with cash flow and inventory depreciation, leading to price reductions that create a serious "price inversion" [4] - The average price of liquor has been growing faster than actual demand, resulting in extended inventory turnover days for high-end liquor in the first three quarters of 2025 [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current demand for high-end liquor is at a historical low, but the downward risk is limited, with potential policy support expected to stabilize demand in 2026 [5] - The complete clearance of inventory and the restructuring of the channel ecosystem will take time, with a true industry turning point likely not occurring until the second quarter of 2026 [5] - Future competition will focus on real consumption scenarios rather than price wars, requiring companies to adapt to health trends and the preferences of younger consumers [5]