30年期国债创年内新低银价走低

Core Viewpoint - The international silver market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with current trading below $88.88, reflecting a 5.33% decline from the opening price of $93.57 per ounce, indicating a short-term sideways trend in silver prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Increased demand for safe-haven assets and the impact of bond supply have led to rising U.S. Treasury prices, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield to its lowest level this year [3]. - The decline in Treasury yields, which fell below 4.80% for the first time this year, is expected to sustain silver demand as fixed-income asset returns decrease [3]. - Recent catalysts for this trend include a drop in U.S. stock indices, heightened military action expectations regarding Iran, and a delay in tariff rulings by the Supreme Court, which improved the fiscal outlook for the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Silver prices have significantly dropped to around $88.50, with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rising and positioned at $77.48, indicating an upward bias as long as prices remain above this level [3][4]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on January 14 was at 68, nearing overbought territory, suggesting strong momentum but potential limitations on short-term upward movement [4]. - Maintaining prices above the rising 20-day EMA is crucial for bullish control, while a close below this level could shift the bias towards consolidation and open up further downside potential targeting the January 8 low of $73.85 [4].