SGP(SH:603586) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-15 03:56Core Viewpoint - The capital market in China is expected to achieve significant growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with hopes for a 100% securitization rate and a stock market value increase from 100 trillion to 200 trillion yuan, but it requires sustained and long-term improvement [3][11]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The stock market experienced a decline from over 3000 points to around 2600 points before recovering, indicating a severe imbalance between supply and demand due to excessive stock issuance without corresponding capital influx [4][12]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is actively working to attract long-term capital into the market, which has led to a significant increase in market activity, with daily trading volumes reaching nearly 4 trillion yuan [4][12]. - The rapid increase in market activity raises concerns about sustainability, as the market may be driven too aggressively without sufficient backing, prompting regulatory measures to control the pace of growth [4][13]. Group 2: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical data shows that the average duration of bull markets in China is 17 months, while bear markets last around 27 months, indicating a tendency for short-lived market rallies [5][13]. - The U.S. stock market has experienced a prolonged bull run since 2009, attributed to consistent performance improvements in listed companies, which is a model for China to consider for long-term market stability [5][13]. - To ensure the stock market's long-term health, it is essential to focus on improving the quality and performance of listed companies, as a disconnect between stock prices and company performance can lead to increased risks and market volatility [6][14].