北京大学国发院教授李玲：新型大健康产业规模不可限量，“可以远远超过房地产”

Core Viewpoint - The "Sina Finance 2025 Conference and the 18th Golden Unicorn Forum" emphasizes the theme of reshaping growth paradigms and creating future prosperity, highlighting the importance of health in China's modernization strategy [1][9]. Group 1: Healthcare Spending and Trends - In 2024, China's total health expenditure is estimated at 90,895.5 billion yuan, with government spending at 24.9%, social spending at 47.6%, and personal spending at 27.5% [1][9]. - The per capita health expenditure is 6,454.4 yuan, and the health expenditure as a percentage of GDP has dropped to 6.7%, marking a significant decline below 7% for the first time [1][9]. Group 2: Challenges and Strategic Shifts - The primary challenge facing China is population aging, necessitating a shift from a disease treatment focus to a health-centered approach, promoting disease prevention [4][12]. - The "Healthy China" national strategy prioritizes health as a key indicator of socialist modernization, requiring collaboration among government, society, and individuals to implement a preventive health model [4][12]. Group 3: Systemic Changes in Healthcare - The government is promoting a systemic approach to healthcare, integrating county, township, and village services into a cohesive "health community," moving away from a profit-driven model based on patient volume [5][13]. - The "Sanming Model" aims to incentivize hospitals and doctors to manage patients' health effectively, with a goal of nationwide implementation within four years [5][13]. Group 4: Opportunities in the Health Industry - The aging population presents opportunities for a new "health+" development paradigm, integrating healthcare, pharmaceuticals, green food, wellness, and elderly care into a large health industry [5][13]. - This emerging health industry is expected to be a lifelong necessity for individuals, with potential market size surpassing that of real estate, serving both Chinese citizens and the global population [5][13]. Group 5: Future Health Management - The envisioned future health model includes a personal health code system, utilizing AI for continuous health management throughout an individual's life, aiming to reduce disease incidence and promote longevity [6][14]. - The integration of traditional wisdom with modern technology is seen as a unique contribution from China to global health, especially in light of challenges faced by developed nations like the U.S. [6][14].