Sugar Prices Find Support on Commodity Index Rebalancing

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.05 (+0.34%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +3.90 (+0.92%) [1] - Sugar prices are expected to rise due to anticipated index-related buying of sugar futures, with Citigroup projecting inflows of $1.2 billion in sugar futures contracts for the annual rebalancing of commodity indexes [1] Group 2: Sugar Production and Supply Outlook - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 increased by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.158 million metric tons (MMT), with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rising to 50.91% in 2025/26 from 48.19% in 2024/25 [2] - Covrig Analytics raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT, but projects a decrease in the surplus to 1.4 MMT for 2026/27 due to weak prices discouraging production [3] - Safras & Mercado forecasts a decline in Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26, with exports expected to fall by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [4] Group 3: Indian Sugar Production and Export Dynamics - Indian sugar production for 2025-26 increased by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT, with the Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raising its production estimate to 31 MMT, up +18.8% year-on-year [5] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota system for sugar exports introduced in 2022/23 [6]