Prediction: IonQ Stock Will Be Worth This Much by Year-End 2026

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of IonQ's stock, highlighting its dramatic sell-off at the end of 2025 and the potential for further declines in 2026 due to its financial profile and the current state of quantum computing technology [1][3][15]. Company Performance - IonQ's stock experienced a significant increase of 73% from January to mid-October 2025, but ended the year with only a 7% gain, indicating a sell-off in the final months [3][2]. - The company generated $68 million in revenue during the first nine months of 2025, exceeding management's guidance [5]. - IonQ's stock price has risen nearly 1,200% since the beginning of the AI revolution, reaching approximately $51 per share [10]. Financial Strategy - IonQ has spent $2.5 billion on acquisitions over the past year to bolster its growth, despite its technology still being in development [6]. - The company has increased its outstanding share count by almost 60% to fund these acquisitions, leading to significant shareholder dilution [8]. Market Position and Valuation - IonQ currently trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 158, which is significantly higher than historical peaks for established companies like Cisco during the dot-com bubble [11]. - The article suggests that IonQ's current valuation does not reflect a sustainable business model, as the company lacks a marketable value proposition at this time [15][16]. Industry Context - The quantum computing sector has seen a surge in interest, with stocks like the Defiance Quantum ETF rising 35% in 2025, indicating a growing market despite IonQ's struggles [2]. - The technology remains largely in the research and development phase, with limited commercial applicability at present [4].