中国股票又迎唱多：2026全年将跑赢美股，A股有望站上5000点

Core Viewpoint - Chinese stocks are expected to maintain strong performance for the remainder of the year, driven by relatively low valuations, RMB appreciation, and favorable policies, as well as geopolitical factors prompting global investors to seek exposure to China as a hedge against risks in U.S. assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 14, the CSI 300 index has risen approximately 2.4% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Index has increased about 5.3%, both outperforming the S&P 500 index's gain of around 1.2% during the same period [1]. - In 2025, the CSI 300 index and the Hang Seng Index rose by 18% and 28%, respectively, compared to a 16% increase in the S&P 500 index [1]. Group 2: Valuation and Future Outlook - Chinese stocks are currently valued at historical median levels, indicating they are "not cheap, but not expensive," with potential for further price increases if corporate earnings recover as expected [2]. - Tiger Securities projects that the average annual return for U.S. stocks will decline to a range of 3% to 5% over the next five to seven years due to factors such as high valuations and persistent inflation risks [2]. - In contrast, Tiger Securities is more optimistic about the Chinese stock market, setting a target price of 30,000 for the Hang Seng Index by the end of 2026, an 11% increase from current levels, and a target of 5,000 for the Shanghai Composite Index, a 21% increase [2]. Group 3: Institutional Support - Several international investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, have recently expressed bullish views on Chinese stocks, citing attractive valuations, strong industry policy support, and optimistic corporate earnings outlooks [2]. - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the CSI 300 index to 5,200, a 9% increase from the recent closing price, and upgraded its earnings growth forecast for Chinese companies from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027, driven by factors such as AI monetization and policy stimulus [2]. - UBS noted that global investors are increasingly viewing Chinese assets as a safe haven against the high valuations and rising policy uncertainties in the U.S. market [2][3].