市场供需双增格局下 预计焦煤期货盘面震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 2.17% to 1173.5 CNY/ton as of January 15 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 15, the main coking coal futures contract has decreased significantly, indicating a weak market performance [1] - The average daily production of raw coal reached 1.978 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons compared to the previous period, while the average daily production of coking coal was 769,000 tons, up by 3.4% [2] - The total inventory of raw coal rose to 5.499 million tons, increasing by 765,000 tons, while the inventory of coking coal decreased to 2.724 million tons, down by 226,000 tons [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is at 88.5%, reflecting a 3.1% increase week-on-week, indicating a recovery in production [2] - Downstream enterprises are showing increased enthusiasm for purchasing and stockpiling, with market confidence recovering and overall procurement willingness improving [4] - Domestic coal mines have ended their year-end production cuts, with production gradually resuming, leading to a marginal increase in coal output [4] Group 3: Export and Auction Insights - According to data from the Gladstone Port Company, coal exports are projected to reach 6.5701 million tons by December 2025, marking an 11.39% increase month-on-month and a 14.8% increase year-on-year [2] - The Mongolian ER Company held an online auction for coking coal, with all 12,800 tons sold at a price of 900 CNY/ton, which is 15 CNY lower than the previous day [2]