Jin Rong Jie·2026-01-15 06:21Core Viewpoint - The agricultural pesticide sector is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by multiple favorable factors, including policy incentives, the upcoming spring farming season, and a recovery in global market demand [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The "One Certificate, One Product" policy will be fully implemented on January 1, 2026, aiming to eliminate the long-standing issues of "one pesticide with multiple names" and "certificate borrowing" in the industry [1]. - This policy is expected to compel companies to shift focus from "labeling" to "research and development," fostering competition based on technology, quality, and service, thereby promoting high-quality industry development [1]. Group 2: Export Tax Adjustments - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticide raw materials starting April 1, 2026, is anticipated to pressure profit margins for related companies in the short term [2]. - However, this adjustment may accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity and encourage companies to transition to high-end products, enhancing product value [2]. - In 2024, China's pesticide formulation export value reached 61.36 billion, surpassing raw material exports for the first time, with a share of 54.12% [2]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The upcoming spring farming season is expected to release strong demand for pesticides, with an estimated 3.8 billion acres of crops affected by pests, leading to direct economic losses exceeding 42 billion [3]. - The industry has maintained an operating rate of over 80% for the past eight months, with inventory levels at their lowest since the beginning of 2024, indicating a favorable supply-demand balance [3]. Group 4: Benefiting Industries - The pesticide intermediate sector is likely to benefit from the rising demand for pesticide raw materials, with companies like Lianhua Technology expected to see performance growth due to stable demand from downstream clients [4]. - The phosphorus chemical industry will also benefit, as the recovery in pesticide demand will increase the consumption of upstream raw materials like phosphate rock and phosphoric acid [4]. - The integration of precision agriculture and the pesticide industry is expected to drive growth in the plant protection service and smart pesticide machinery sectors, with significant increases in the adoption of precision application equipment projected [5].