20cm速递｜科创综指ETF国泰（589630）小幅回调，市场迎“科技+周期的两翼齐飞”，回调或可布局

Group 1 - The current market should focus on the dual growth of "technology + cycles," with AI hardware, such as optical communication, showing a rising trend similar to the previous peak during 5G base station construction, driven by rapid structural demand for AI computing power expansion [1] - The core factor for the sustained strength of AI hardware is the marginal change in profit growth (ΔG), which currently does not show a significant turning point, suggesting that it is likely to continue following the broader valuation bull market [1] - The main players in the AI industry may shift, as AI applications are transitioning from "computing infrastructure" to "scenario realization," with a resurgence expected under the resonance of policy, demand, ecology, and capital [1] Group 2 - New themes emerging from the 14th Five-Year Plan, such as commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces, have the potential to become new mainlines in the market [1] - In the cyclical sector, industries benefiting from PPI improvement are expected to perform well, supported by price increase signals and anti-involution policies [1] - The Guotai Science and Technology Innovation Index ETF (589630) tracks the Science and Technology Innovation Index (000680), which saw a daily fluctuation of 20%, covering 97% of the listed companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, with over 560 constituent stocks in hard technology fields like electronics and biomedicine [1]