开年车市同比降四成 专家：新能源趋势不改

Core Insights - The impact of the new energy vehicle purchase tax reduction policy is reflected in the car market at the beginning of January 2026, with significant declines in both retail and wholesale figures for passenger vehicles [1] - The overall penetration rate of new energy vehicles has decreased, with January 1-11 penetration rates at 35.5% for retail and 43.9% for wholesale, both lower than the previous year's average [1] - Despite the decline in penetration rates, analysts suggest that this does not indicate a market reversal, as low penetration rates at the beginning of the year are considered normal [1] Market Performance - From January 1-11, 2026, the national retail of passenger vehicles was 328,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32%, while wholesale was 381,000 units, down 40% [1] - The new energy vehicle retail market saw 117,000 units sold, a 38% decline year-on-year, and wholesale was 167,000 units, down 30% [1] - In comparison, the new energy penetration rates for January 2025 and January 2024 were 37.9% and 27.1%, respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase of 5.9 and 16.7 percentage points for January 2026 [2] Policy Impact - The adjustment of the "two new" subsidy policies has introduced variables to the new energy vehicle market, with changes in scrapping and replacement subsidies affecting lower-end vehicles significantly [3] - For example, the scrapping subsidy for a 100,000 yuan new energy vehicle has decreased from 20,000 yuan last year to 12,000 yuan this year, alongside an additional 5,000 yuan increase in purchase costs due to tax changes, totaling a policy-related "setback" of 13,000 yuan [3] - Analysts predict that the increase in new energy penetration rates this year may be slower than in previous years, estimating a growth rate of around 8% for the domestic new energy market, with an overall market growth rate of approximately 15% when factoring in exports [3] Market Outlook - Despite uncertainties in the new energy market, there is a general optimistic outlook for overall car market growth this year, driven by ongoing consumer promotion policies [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission's announcement on December 30, 2025, regarding large-scale equipment updates and replacement policies is expected to boost domestic automotive consumption [4] - January is anticipated to see a slight year-on-year increase in sales, supported by pre-ordered vehicles and efforts from local governments and car manufacturers [4]