“反内卷”助力盈利修复，石化ETF（159731）迎布局新机遇

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a positive trend, with significant inflows into related ETFs and a favorable outlook for earnings growth in the A-share market through 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index is currently experiencing high volatility, with a rise of approximately 1.15% [1] - Notable stocks such as Tongcheng New Materials have reached the daily limit, while Guangdong Hongda, Hualu Hengsheng, and Tongkun Co. have also seen gains [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) has recorded net inflows in 8 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling 133 million yuan [1] - The latest share count for the Petrochemical ETF has reached 399 million, with a total scale of 379 million yuan, both hitting record highs since inception [1] Group 2: Earnings Outlook - According to Zhongyin Securities, the cumulative profit growth rate for non-financial A-shares is expected to be between 2.4% and 5.5% in 2025, indicating a continued trend of profit recovery [1] - The overall profit recovery trend is likely to persist into 2026, supported by technological industry trends and the further implementation of "anti-involution" policies [1] - Despite the current high valuation of A-share indices, they have not yet entered a phase of excessive bubble similar to 2007 and 2015, suggesting ample room for index growth in 2026 [1] Group 3: Industry Composition - The top three sectors within the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index are refining and trading (27.28%), chemical products (22.81%), and agricultural chemical products (20.3%) [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is identified as a core theme for the petrochemical industry, with expectations for continued improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics and profitability [1]