于学军：预计2026年人民币看涨 外贸进出口数据还会继续向好

Core Viewpoint - The current low interest rates in the U.S. pose significant financial risks if further cuts are made, as they may lead to market bubbles due to excessive liquidity [2][4][10]. Monetary Policy and Financial Risks - Historical financial crises are often linked to market bubbles, which arise from excessive monetary credit expansion and overly loose monetary policies [3][9]. - A neutral interest rate is generally considered to be around 5.5% or higher, and maintaining rates below this level for extended periods can lead to excessive liquidity and bubble formation [3][9]. Current Interest Rate Environment - U.S. and European interest rates are currently below the neutral level, and any further reductions could exacerbate the risk of bubbles and negative consequences in the long term [4][11]. - Predictions regarding future interest rate cuts show significant divergence, but the overarching trend indicates that the U.S. benchmark interest rate is substantially below the neutral level, which could hinder inflation control and accumulate risks [11]. Currency and Trade Implications - The Chinese yuan is expected to face renewed appreciation pressure, with the USD/CNY exchange rate moving from 1:7.35 to below 1:7, primarily due to the depreciation of the dollar [5][12]. - The latest exchange rate for the yuan against the dollar is 1:6.97, and with anticipated further U.S. rate cuts, the dollar is expected to weaken, benefiting China's trade performance [5][12]. - The appreciation pressure on the yuan, coupled with a significant trade surplus, is likely to improve domestic liquidity and alleviate downward pressure on China's economic growth [12].