Core Viewpoint - The current low interest rates in the US may lead to significant financial risks if further reduced, as they are already below the neutral rate, which is generally considered to be at least 5.5% [2][11][16]. Interest Rate Analysis - The Federal Reserve has recently lowered the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the sixth reduction since September 2024 [5][14]. - Historical analysis shows that every financial crisis in the US has been preceded by a period of loose monetary policy, which leads to credit expansion and the formation of bubbles [6][15]. - The neutral interest rate is believed to be around 5.5% or higher, and maintaining rates below this level for extended periods can release excessive liquidity, resulting in bubbles [6][16]. Historical Context - The US experienced a significant drop in interest rates from 6.5% to 1% between early 2001 and mid-2003, which contributed to the housing bubble and the 2007 financial crisis [6][15]. - The long-term low interest rate policy has been identified as a key factor in creating conditions for financial crises, as seen in the 2007 international financial crisis [6][15]. Current Economic Environment - The current interest rates in the US and Europe are below the neutral level, and further reductions could lead to the formation of bubbles within three years [7][16]. - The Federal Reserve's current chair, Jerome Powell, has indicated a conservative approach to rate cuts, with predictions of only one additional cut this year, amidst political pressures for more aggressive reductions [7][16]. AI Bubble Debate - There is ongoing debate regarding whether an AI bubble exists, with some experts arguing that AI represents a significant technological innovation and infrastructure, while others caution that bubbles are a monetary phenomenon, not solely tied to technological advancements [8][12][17].
于学军：当前AI是否有泡沫？黄仁勋说的发展是真的 我看泡沫也是真的
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-15 06:44