Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2026-01-15 07:00Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the recent surge in copper prices has likely peaked, with increasing risks of a price correction ahead [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 15, the main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced a sharp decline, dropping nearly 3% at one point, and closing down 2.21% at 101,870 yuan per ton [1]. - In the international market, most base metals also saw declines, with London copper down 1.27%, nickel down 1.55%, aluminum down 0.9%, and tin down 0.5% as of 14:00 Beijing time [3]. Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - Copper prices have surged nearly 24% since November 20, 2025, but have recently retreated from historical highs due to easing concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on key minerals and a strengthening dollar [4]. - Citigroup's research team indicates that January may represent the peak price for copper in 2026, with a forecast of a return to around $13,000 per ton as a more sustainable level [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs also predicts that the current price surge is primarily driven by speculative trading and concerns over U.S. tariffs, suggesting that once tariff policies become clearer, accumulated metal inventories in the U.S. may flood the global market, exerting downward pressure on prices [4][5]. Group 3: Other Metals and Market Dynamics - Citigroup has raised the probability of a bullish scenario for copper prices reaching $15,000 per ton to 30%, reflecting a higher potential for price increases [8]. - Aluminum is highlighted as having significant structural opportunities, facing its most severe supply shortage in two decades, with short-term targets set at $3,400 per ton and mid-term at $3,500 per ton [8]. - Citigroup has also increased its three-month target price for lithium carbonate to $25,000 per ton, driven by preemptive stocking by downstream battery companies amid tight inventory conditions [9].