U.S. CPI Prints 0.3% in Dec; BTC Holds $92K as Rate-Hold Odds Firm

Core Inflation and CPI Data - U.S. inflation re-accelerated in December with CPI-U increasing by 0.3% month-over-month (m/m) and 2.7% year-over-year (y/y), primarily driven by a 0.4% m/m rise in shelter costs [1] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained stable at 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y, supporting the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain current rates into the January 29, 2026, FOMC meeting [2] Market Reaction and Rate Outlook - Rate pricing indicates a strong likelihood of holding rates steady, with probabilities for "no change" clustered around the high-70% range as observed in late December [3] - The shelter-led CPI keeps the term premium stable, while the low core inflation limits the risk of prolonged higher rates that typically affect Bitcoin (BTC) trades [4] Implications for Crypto Markets - A CPI increase of 0.3% alongside a core inflation of 0.2% keeps the front end of the yield curve anchored, affecting crypto market reactions by shifting focus back to real yields and positioning [5] - Systematic funds that rely on macro surprise indices do not receive new signals, while discretionary trading desks continue to treat BTC as a rates-volatility proxy due to lower carry costs associated with subdued implied volatility [5]