通胀粘性未消，美联储官员分歧加剧：年内降息150还是25个基点？

Core Insights - The latest consumer and wholesale inflation data indicate persistent price stickiness, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in the short term [1] - Federal Reserve officials are analyzing these data to forecast inflation trends up to 2026, shaping the interest rate decision roadmap for this year [1] Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. Labor Department reported that wholesale prices rose by 3% year-on-year in November, compared to a 2.8% increase in October, with energy prices contributing to the overall rise [1] - Excluding volatile energy and food prices, wholesale prices still increased by 3.5% over the past 12 months, marking the largest increase since March [1][2] Producer Price Index Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) suggests that wholesale inflation is more moderate than it appears at first glance [2] - Adjustments to September data have led to higher-than-expected October and November indices, with core PPI showing strong increases of 0.5% in September and October, followed by a slight decrease of 0.1% in November [3] Consumer Price Index Insights - The core consumer price index, excluding food and energy, recorded a 2.6% increase, slightly below the expected 2.7%, but still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [3] - The preferred inflation measure of the Federal Reserve, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, is estimated to rise to 3% from a previous stable rate of 2.8% [3] Economic Activity and Price Trends - Eight out of twelve Federal Reserve districts reported slight economic activity recovery, while three reported no change and one reported a slight decline [4] - Businesses are beginning to pass on increased costs to consumers to maintain profit margins, although sectors like retail and dining are resistant to price hikes [4] Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Federal Reserve officials, including Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulsen, believe that tariff-induced price increases are primarily limited to goods rather than services, suggesting no sustained inflation [5] - Paulsen anticipates that inflation will approach the 2% target by the end of the year, with some moderate adjustments to interest rates expected [5] - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed uncertainty about the speed of inflation decline, emphasizing the need to monitor both goods and service price trends [6] Economic Resilience and Interest Rate Outlook - Overall, the economy appears resilient, with strong consumer spending and investments in AI expected to continue throughout the year [6][7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range during the upcoming policy meeting, following three rate cuts last fall [7]