Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2026-01-15 07:56Core Insights - The 2026 Global and China Capital Market Outlook Forum highlighted the theme of "following the direction of credit expansion" as the core narrative for global and Hong Kong markets in 2026, emphasizing that excess liquidity is intensifying structural differentiation in the market [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The fundamental logic of the current market remains unchanged, driven by three main factors: valuation, economic direction, and capital, with capital playing an increasingly critical role leading to significant sector rotation [1] - In the Hong Kong stock market, 2025 is expected to exhibit a "one style per quarter" characteristic, with sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals taking turns, indicating that misjudging the timing could lead to losses even in a bull market [1][2] Group 2: Credit Cycle and Asset Performance - The credit cycle framework is essential for understanding market changes over the past three years, with 2024 focusing on dividend assets for stable returns, 2025 seeing a rise in sectors driven by an upward credit cycle, and 2026 expected to show a "mixed bag" where the strength of the credit cycle will dictate capital flows [2] - From a global perspective, the impact of credit expansion is pervasive, with the M7 sector in the US stock market showing significant gains closely tied to capital expenditure expectations, and the dollar's performance linked to fiscal expansion expectations in Europe and the US [2]