不与市场“抢”债！央行揭示2025年国债买卖操作逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of government bond trading operations to stabilize the bond market and enhance macro-prudential management, preventing extreme market fluctuations [1] Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - The issuance of government bonds has increased significantly, with a projected issuance of 16 trillion yuan in 2025, resulting in a net increase of 6.6 trillion yuan, leading to an estimated year-end balance of approximately 40 trillion yuan [1] - Financial institutions, including banks and non-bank entities, hold a substantial portion of these bonds, with banks holding 27 trillion yuan, non-bank financial institutions holding 5 trillion yuan, and foreign institutions holding 2 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: PBOC's Bond Trading Operations - In 2025, the PBOC plans to repurchase government bonds and local government bonds through buyback operations, with a scale close to 7 trillion yuan, which is expected to enhance market liquidity for government bonds [1] - The PBOC paused bond buying operations at the beginning of 2025 due to a significant supply-demand imbalance in the bond market, resuming operations in the fourth quarter when market conditions stabilized [1] Group 3: Future Strategies - The PBOC will consider various factors, including the need for base currency issuance, supply-demand conditions in the bond market, and changes in the yield curve, to flexibly conduct government bond trading operations [1] - The aim is to maintain ample liquidity and create a favorable monetary and financial environment for the smooth issuance of government bonds [1]