TrendForce集邦咨询：新机调价影响销售需求 2026年第二季度起智能手机生产承压明显

Core Insights - The smartphone market is expected to face dual pressures of tight memory supply and soaring prices starting in the second half of 2025, leading to increased terminal product prices and weakened demand [1] - Despite a conservative outlook from various smartphone brands, there has been no significant reduction in memory procurement, as brands prioritize resource locking to avoid higher future costs [1] - The first half of 2026 will be a critical period for brands to adjust production and product structure, with major production plan adjustments anticipated between the second and third quarters of 2026 [2] Group 1 - The smartphone production forecast for 2026 has been revised downwards by TrendForce, with a year-on-year reduction expected to increase from 2% to 7% compared to previous estimates [2] - Brands are adjusting specifications and pricing strategies to mitigate the impact of earlier price increases, although the effects on production schedules will not be immediate [2] - The increase in finished goods inventory due to various factors, including the diminishing effects of subsidy policies in the Chinese market and the impact of price adjustments on sales, may lead some brands to curtail future production plans starting in the first quarter of 2026 [1]