2026抓好这些主线！博道基金张建胜：AI硬件的下半场或在存力和互联，重视AI应用！

Core Viewpoint - The current market equates "investing in technology" with "buying AI," with light modules being seen as entry tickets to the AI market. However, some fund managers, like Zhang Jiansheng from Bodao Fund, adopt a different approach by focusing on early-stage investments in various hot sectors without chasing extreme trends, achieving significant returns instead [1]. Investment Strategy - Zhang Jiansheng's investment framework emphasizes a "bottom-up, moderately diversified, and balanced growth" approach, with a strong focus on valuation and drawdown control. His cautious risk preference stems from his early career experiences during market volatility [2]. - His investment style features distinct left-side trading characteristics, where he sets target market values for companies and gradually sells once prices reach those levels, avoiding high premium purchases [2]. - The core selection logic revolves around three dimensions: competitive barriers, industry prosperity, and valuation, with a higher weight on competitive barriers outside the TMT sector and a greater emphasis on industry prosperity within TMT [2]. Market Insights - Zhang believes that to earn excess returns from highly valued leading companies, one must possess deep industry knowledge. He prefers to identify "left-side" targets with lower market attention and reasonable valuations, which allows for manageable downside risks [3]. - His portfolio construction strategy involves limiting single industry holdings to no more than 25% and maintaining a balanced allocation across high-end manufacturing, TMT, and consumer sectors, resulting in effective drawdown control [3]. Portfolio Construction - Zhang's focus on valuation enables him to uncover opportunities in less popular market segments, such as his early 2024 positioning in the Hong Kong stock market and the 2025 focus on innovative pharmaceuticals, where valuations had reached attractive historical lows [4]. - He aims to capitalize on valuation recovery in innovative pharmaceuticals, gradually realizing profits as valuations improve, while also recognizing that low valuations do not guarantee price increases [4]. - His investment in the semiconductor storage sector in 2025 was based on a dual assessment of valuation and industry trends, identifying low valuations alongside positive industry signals as a favorable investment combination [5]. 2026 Market Outlook - Zhang holds an optimistic view of the A-share market, supported by three key factors: a significant decrease in risk premiums, ongoing regulatory support for the capital market, and signs of corporate earnings recovery [6]. - In terms of investment focus for 2026, he highlights three areas: AI, particularly in storage and connectivity, with an emphasis on the shift from "technology-first" to "product-first" among leading companies; resource sectors benefiting from "re-industrialization" and "re-globalization," with a particular interest in silver; and valuation recovery opportunities in traditional industries like chemicals and consumer sectors [6][7].