【2026年汇市展望】2025年欧元强势反弹13% 未来却仍深存结构性风险

Group 1: Core Insights - The international monetary system is undergoing structural changes due to high interest rates, fiscal sustainability debates, and geopolitical conflicts, leading to a reassessment of "safe assets" like U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Global official gold reserves surpassed the value of foreign-held U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time in Q2 2025, with gold spot prices increasing nearly 70% [1] - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.92% by Q3 2025, marking a 30-year low and indicating a search for a new balance in the global reserve system [2] Group 2: Euro's Position - The euro's share in global foreign exchange reserves reached 20.33% by Q3 2025, maintaining its position as the second-largest reserve currency [3] - The euro's strength against the dollar increased by 13% in 2025, closing the year at 1.16-1.17, despite underlying structural issues within the eurozone [8] - The European Central Bank's monetary policy has diverged from the U.S. Federal Reserve, with the ECB cutting rates multiple times while the Fed also lowered rates, contributing to the euro's appreciation [10] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The eurozone's GDP growth forecast for 2025 was downgraded to 1.3%, with Germany's growth expected to be only 0.3%, highlighting economic vulnerabilities [11] - Significant fiscal measures, such as Germany's €500 billion infrastructure fund and the EU's €800 billion rearmament plan, are seen as crucial for the euro's long-term valuation, though their short-term effectiveness is questioned [11] - Predictions for the euro's exchange rate against the dollar in 2026 vary, with estimates ranging from 1.10 to 1.25, influenced by interest rate differentials and economic recovery [12][13]