华创证券张瑜：经济温和复苏，2026年把握“多股空债”主线

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Global and China Capital Market Outlook Forum highlighted a moderate economic recovery, a shift in asset allocation towards equities over bonds, and increasing differentiation within commodity markets [1][3][4]. Economic Outlook - The economic fundamentals are showing a moderate recovery, with nominal GDP, average indices, PPI, and CPI readings all improving compared to 2025 [3][9]. - Macro policies are expected to move away from "extraordinary" measures as the economy improves, leading to less aggressive policy actions [3][9]. - Financial conditions are anticipated to tighten marginally, with M2 year-on-year growth expected to shift from a unilateral increase in 2025 to a unilateral decrease in 2026 [3][9]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The strategic asset allocation is leaning towards "long on stocks, short on bonds," with a particular emphasis on Chinese equities [3][9]. - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to rise above 2% to achieve reasonable value [3][9]. - Since 2025, A-share volatility has been significantly lower than bond volatility, making stocks more attractive in terms of risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio) [3][9]. Commodity Market Insights - Commodities are categorized into three types: gold, minor metals, and traditional grains/oil, with significant differentiation observed among them [4][10]. - The differentiation within commodities is expected to persist, driven by global security concerns and the scarcity of certain resources [4][11]. - The market dynamics indicate that scarce resources will become increasingly valuable, while those that are not scarce will lose value [4][11].