Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-15 08:35Core Insights - The 2026 Global and China Capital Market Outlook Forum was held on January 15, focusing on wealth logic in the AI era and the future of capital markets [1][6]. Market Outlook - The target index for Hong Kong stocks in 2026 is set between 28,000 and 29,000 points, with a core principle of "structure over market" and a focus on four key sectors [2][7]. - The 2025 market performance was satisfactory, with a previous target of 26,000 points for the Hang Seng Index being met [2][7]. - The expectation for 2026 is based on the assessment that Hong Kong's earnings growth may lag behind that of A-shares, but this outlook could change with significant fiscal policy support [2][7]. Sector Analysis - The four key sectors for investment in Hong Kong stocks are dividends, internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are seen as having unique advantages [2][7]. - AI remains a primary investment theme, with A-shares focusing on hardware and Hong Kong stocks on application sectors, indicating a complementary market strategy [3][8]. - The cyclical sector is highlighted as a focus for the first quarter, including copper, aluminum, chemicals, engineering machinery, and real estate-related tools, supported by U.S. demand and favorable domestic policies [3][8]. - The consumer sector lacks overall fundamental support, suggesting a selective approach to stock picking based on deep value [3][8]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy revolves around "following credit expansion," with funds naturally gravitating towards areas of credit growth, even considering opportunities from overseas credit expansion [3][8]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of structural investment over market timing, particularly in sectors with strong credit expansion dynamics [3][8].