张尧浠:美零售及PPI利空 金价日内回撤仍视为多头机会

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices rebounded and closed higher, recovering losses from the previous day and reaching a new historical high, indicating a bullish outlook for the future [1][9] Market Performance - On January 14, gold opened slightly higher at $4588.21 per ounce, marking the day's low, and then rebounded, facing resistance around $4640. The highest point reached was $4642.63, but it ultimately closed at $4626.26, up $39.83 or 0.87% from the previous close of $4586.43, with a daily fluctuation of $56.2 [1][9] Economic Indicators - The market is closely watching upcoming economic data, including initial jobless claims, the New York Fed manufacturing index, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and the monthly import price index, with mixed expectations [5][13] - Despite strong retail sales and PPI data, the recent employment data and CPI figures suggest that the market anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year [5][13] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset, despite strong economic indicators that could limit further gains [4][11] Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis shows gold prices are strong, trading above trendline resistance and recovering from previous declines, with potential for over 30% gains this year, targeting $5500-$6000 [7][15] - Weekly analysis indicates a bullish trend, with prices expected to reach around $4700 in the short term, supported by various moving averages [16] - Daily analysis suggests a slight weakening in bullish momentum, but the overall outlook remains positive, with support levels around $4585 or $4550 and resistance levels at $4660 or $4680 [17]