Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-15 08:59Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "structural bull" phase, with expected limited corrections despite potential fluctuations [1][9]. Group 1: Market Characteristics - "Structural bull" refers to a stage where industry trends are not yet mature, leading to a premature increase in market capitalization and valuation, which may result in adjustments when perceived as overvalued [3][11]. - A "comprehensive bull" occurs when industry trends mature, driven by capital strength and optimistic market expectations, potentially leading to true bubbles [3][11]. - Two key judgments were made: the major bull market is nearing its end, and after the spring rally, a quarterly phase of correction may follow [3][11]. Group 2: Market Trends from 2025 Onwards - The market from 2025 to present exhibits typical characteristics of a "structural bull" year, with extreme positioning by institutional investors, particularly in the electronics and TMT sectors [4][12][14]. - There has been a noticeable upward trend in the net value of public funds and the accumulated profit effect for institutional investors, with new products from 2020 to 2021 recovering above the baseline [6][12][14]. - Concerns have arisen regarding the valuations of key sectors, with investors feeling that the AI industry chain, commercial aerospace, and AI applications are overvalued or have overly optimistic expectations [6][12][14]. Group 3: Spring Market Dynamics - The current spring market is characterized as a continuous expansion within the structural bull framework, with a focus on electronics and communication hardware [15]. - Since September 2025, new industry directions have emerged, including active performance in the power equipment and renewable energy sectors, and themes like commercial aerospace and AI applications have gained traction [15]. - The rapid increase in valuations to historically high levels often leads to stagnation and volatility, indicating a transition from unilateral growth to a waiting phase for new industry trends to develop [15].