张津镭:冲高回落模式警示风险 黄金高位可做空

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with prices fluctuating around key psychological levels, indicating a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments driven by risk aversion and liquidity [1][6]. Market Dynamics - On January 15, gold prices initially rose to around $4640 but faced selling pressure, dropping below the critical $4600 mark before rebounding to a high of $4642, ultimately closing at $4626, reflecting a small gain on the day [1][5]. - The market is characterized by a "high-high-low" pattern, where new price peaks are followed by profit-taking, making it difficult for gold to maintain a stable position at elevated levels [6][7]. Technical Analysis - Technical indicators such as MACD and RSI show signs of divergence, suggesting a weakening momentum despite the price being in an upward channel [2][6]. - The market may be due for a technical correction, with potential support levels identified at $4520-$4500 and even lower at $4460-$4450, indicating a strategic point for long-term positioning [2][7]. Trading Recommendations - A trading strategy is suggested to short gold between $4610 and $4512, with a stop loss at $4620 and targets set at $4520-$4500 [3][8]. Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to watch includes U.S. initial jobless claims, New York Fed manufacturing index, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and import price index, all scheduled for January 15 [4][9].