Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-15 09:05Core Viewpoint - The A-share bull market is not over, but the subsequent development will exhibit a clear two-phase characteristic: "structural bull" and "comprehensive bull" [1][6]. Group 1: Conditions for Comprehensive Bull Market - Three overlapping factors are necessary for the initiation of a comprehensive bull market: cyclical improvement in fundamentals, reinforcement of technology industry trends, and a positive cycle of incremental resident funds [3][8]. - By the second half of 2026, conditions for a comprehensive bull market are expected to mature, with the market likely to enter this phase [3][8]. Group 2: Earnings and Investment Opportunities - The improvement in listed companies' performance is more certain than the overall economic improvement [3][8]. - The core background driving advanced manufacturing is that the supply clearance in midstream manufacturing has reached historically high levels, suggesting that midstream manufacturing is likely to emerge from deflation first [3][8]. - Two significant occurrences are anticipated in 2026: a meaningful upward marginal improvement in A-share overall profitability and the market achieving double-digit growth for the first time in five years [3][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Fund Flow - Concerns regarding fund flow in the current market reflect that funds have not yet entered a true inflow phase, but once a genuine bull market arrives, actively managed products will likely outperform [3][8]. - The next phase of the bull market may not be driven by fundamental earnings but rather by comprehensive valuation increases and a positive cycle of incremental funds [4][9].