Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-15 09:05Core Viewpoint - The A-share bull market is not over, but the subsequent development will exhibit a clear two-phase characteristic: "structural bull" and "comprehensive bull" [1][6]. Group 1: Conditions for Comprehensive Bull Market - Three overlapping factors are necessary for the initiation of a comprehensive bull market: cyclical improvement in fundamentals, reinforcement of technology industry trends, and a positive cycle of incremental resident funds [3][8]. - By the second half of 2026, conditions for a comprehensive bull market are expected to mature, with the potential for significant market opportunities [3][8]. Group 2: Earnings and Investment Focus - Company earnings improvement is more certain than overall economic improvement, indicating a focus on midstream manufacturing, which is expected to emerge from deflation first [3][8]. - The A-share market may witness effective marginal upward movement in overall profitability and achieve double-digit growth for the first time in five years [3][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Fund Flow - The current market concerns regarding fund flow reflect that funds have not yet entered a true inflow phase, but once a bull market arrives, actively managed products will likely outperform [3][8]. - The next phase of the bull market may not be driven by fundamental earnings but rather by comprehensive valuation increases and a positive cycle of incremental funds [4][9].