杨华曌:特朗普谈判缓解关税担忧 贵金属价格创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The market's concerns over potential tariffs on silver, platinum, and palladium by the U.S. have eased following Trump's announcement of negotiations for bilateral agreements to ensure a sufficient supply of critical minerals [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - Metal prices, including silver and gold, surged due to geopolitical uncertainties, supply issues, and tariff concerns, leading to new highs for copper and tin [1][4]. - The gold-silver ratio has fallen below 50 for the first time since March 2012, indicating a significant market shift, as historical trends suggest that such a drop often leads to either a rise in gold prices or a decline in silver prices [1][4]. - The CME has tightened risk controls by changing the margin calculation method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from a fixed dollar amount to a nominal value percentage, which will dynamically adjust with contract value fluctuations [1][4]. Group 2: Industry Insights and Future Outlook - The tightening of margin requirements has increased the cost of high-leverage speculation, leading some traders to reduce their positions, which may help temper overheated market sentiments [5]. - Despite short-term volatility, industry experts believe that the upward trend in metal prices is likely to continue, with precious and non-ferrous metals expected to experience more upward movements than downward [5]. - Factors supporting a potential rise in gold prices include continued purchases by central banks, the Fed entering a rate-cutting cycle, and the erosion of dollar credit due to U.S. fiscal debt issues [5]. - For silver, industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers is expected to grow, while supply constraints and export controls may keep the market in a tight balance, suggesting continued upward momentum for silver prices [5].