财通基金沈犁：本轮A股行情具备高质量成长特征，全A利润增速已在2025年Q3迎来拐点

Core Insights - The A-share market is expected to enter a "high-quality growth" phase starting from September 2024, driven by policy, improved Sino-U.S. relations, capital inflow, and stabilizing fundamentals [1][4] - The overall net profit for A-shares is projected to reach a turning point in Q3 2025, supported by trends such as "anti-involution," global manufacturing stabilization, and the AI industry's impact on TMT performance [1][4] - Current valuation levels of A-shares are considered reasonable, with equity risk premium (ERP) above the historical average since 2005, indicating better value compared to bonds [1][4] Valuation and Market Trends - A-shares are currently at a historical low valuation relative to U.S. stocks, suggesting significant room for valuation recovery [1][4] - The rise of domestic AI is expected to lead to a revaluation of technology stocks, while the initiation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to enhance policy expectations [1][4] Investment Focus - The trend of overseas expansion is identified as a key investment theme for 2026, with the share of overseas revenue for non-financial A-share companies increasing from approximately 16% to 20% [2][5] - Overseas business operations exhibit significantly higher profitability, with gross margins approximately 5 percentage points higher than domestic operations, indicating a sustainable trend for companies seeking growth and better profit levels [2][5]