西部期货：沪金高位震荡 机构预判中期上涨趋势不改

Macro News - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to a defensive stance among dollar bulls, while a mild decline in CPI data has increased expectations for future interest rate cuts [1] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, President Trump's threats of military action due to unrest in Iran, the White House's insistence on purchasing Greenland, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to support precious metals [1] - The Philadelphia Fed President Harker reiterated that if inflation continues to decline as expected and the labor market stabilizes, the Federal Reserve may further lower interest rates later this year [1] - The PPI and core PPI in the U.S. rose by 3% year-on-year in November, while market expectations were at 2.7%, with rising energy costs being the main driver of PPI increases [1] - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in November, the fastest growth since July, driven by a rebound in auto sales and strong holiday shopping [1] Institutional Views - In the short term, challenges to monetary policy independence and escalating geopolitical tensions have heightened safe-haven demand and trading sentiment for precious metals, but potential profit-taking by investors at high levels may lead to price corrections [1] - In the medium term, weak U.S. manufacturing, the overarching trend of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to pressure the dollar, supporting an increase in precious metals [1]