摩根士丹利邢自强谈房地产市场：建议收库存、保主体、贴按揭

Core Viewpoint - The current focus is on breaking the low-price cycle and addressing insufficient consumption through significant reforms, particularly in social security and the real estate market [1][3]. Group 1: Consumption and Social Security - Consumption should not solely rely on government subsidies; while they may have short-term effects, long-term solutions require a robust social security system to alleviate concerns and encourage spending [1][3]. - There is a proposal to significantly increase social security subsidies for farmers and migrant workers from over 200 yuan per month to 1,000 yuan by 2030, aiming to resolve consumer concerns [2][4]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The stabilization of the real estate market is crucial; based on international experience, it typically takes about seven years for a real estate market to stabilize after significant fluctuations, and China is currently in its fifth year [1][3]. - There is a need to address the inventory issue in major cities, which is close to two years' worth of sales volume [1][3]. - Recommendations include inventory reduction, support for main entities, and particularly the implementation of mortgage subsidies to lower the cost of mortgages and narrow the gap with rental yields [1][3][4].