摩根士丹利邢自强：建议提升农民及农民工社保补贴水平，从每月200余元提升至2030年的1000元

Core Viewpoint - The current focus should be on breaking the low-price cycle and addressing consumption deficiencies through significant reforms and adjustments [1][4]. Group 1: Consumption and Economic Reforms - Consumption should not solely rely on government subsidies, which may have short-term effects; long-term solutions require improvements in the social security system and stabilization of the real estate market [3][6]. - Enhancing the social security system is crucial to alleviate residents' concerns and encourage spending, thereby unlocking consumption potential [3][6]. - The real estate market has not yet stabilized, with historical data suggesting that economies typically take seven years to reach a stable state after significant fluctuations; China is currently in its fifth year of this cycle [3][6]. Group 2: Real Estate Market Strategies - Strategies to stabilize the real estate market include inventory reduction, maintaining key stakeholders, and implementing mortgage subsidies to lower the cost of mortgages for residents [3][6]. - Evidence from international experiences indicates that when mortgage rates are significantly lower than rental yields, it can improve public expectations for home purchases, fostering a positive cycle in the real estate market [3][6]. - Recommendations for the 2026 real estate policy include the implementation of mortgage subsidies to enhance affordability and stimulate market activity [3][6]. Group 3: Social Security Enhancements - A proposal to significantly increase social security subsidies for farmers and migrant workers from approximately 200 yuan per month to 1,000 yuan by 2030 aims to address consumer concerns and boost spending [3][6].