Wedgewood Partners Q4 2025 Client Letter

Core Insights - The investment outlook for 2025 is cautious, anticipating greater stock market volatility compared to previous years, with a focus on waiting for better pricing opportunities for both new and existing positions [3][57] - The Wedgewood Composite Net performance for 2024 was +4.3%, while the S&P 500 Index and Russell 1000 Growth Index saw gains of +17.9% and +18.6% respectively, indicating underperformance relative to broader indices [6][57] - The year 2025 was marked by significant challenges, with poor stock selection leading to underperformance, particularly in AI and technology-related holdings, despite strong contributions from companies like Alphabet and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing [57][60] Performance Overview - The Wedgewood Composite Net returns for various periods are as follows: Q4 -1.8%, YTD +4.3%, 1-Year +4.3%, 3-Year +20.3%, and 5-Year +11.4% [6] - The S&P 500 Index and Russell 1000 Growth Index outperformed the Wedgewood Composite in 2024, with respective returns of +17.9% and +18.6% [6] Top Contributors - Alphabet (GOOGL) was a top contributor in Q4, with an average weight of 9.28% and a contribution to return of +2.38%, driven by a 15% growth in search revenues [11][14] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) also performed well, contributing +4.45% to returns in 2025, supported by strong demand in high-performance computing [11][15] - Apple (AAPL) saw a +13% growth in adjusted earnings per share, contributing +0.42% to returns in 2025, driven by a robust services business [11][16] Bottom Contributors - Meta Platforms (META) was a significant detractor, despite a +26% revenue growth, with a contribution to return of -0.85% due to increased spending on AI initiatives [11][19] - PayPal (PYPL) also detracted from performance, with a contribution of -1.99% attributed to slowing transaction volumes and increased expenses [11][21] - UnitedHealth (UNH) and Motorola Solutions (MSI) were other notable detractors, with contributions of -2.90% and -0.75% respectively [11][22] Company Specific Insights - Amazon (AMZN) has been repositioning under new management, focusing on managing capacity and costs, with an expectation of double-digit growth driven by e-commerce and IaaS [25][30] - Chubb (CB) was initiated as a new position, recognized for its strong underwriting capabilities and focus on specialty insurance markets, which supports steady premium growth and profitability [31][34][38] - The investment portfolio of Chubb has been growing, with total assets increasing from $66 billion in 2015 to an estimated $166 billion by Q3 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 9.9% [50]