财通基金骆莹:创新器械有望复制创新药走势,手术机器人出海打开巨大增长空间

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical industry is entering a new industrial cycle starting in 2025, driven by "innovation" and "going global," which highlights the competitive advantages of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [1][2]. Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are rapidly gaining global recognition, with License-out transaction upfront payments reaching $8.45 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 [3]. - The industry is transitioning into the "BD 2.0 era," which is expected to lead to continuous valuation increases as products enter global registration clinical trials and data readouts [3]. - The small nucleic acid therapies, such as siRNA, represent the "third wave" of modern pharmaceuticals, with market potential projected to grow from $5-10 billion in 2025 to $46.7 billion by 2033 [3]. Group 2: Medical Device Sector - The high-value consumables sector is expected to replicate the industrial trends of innovative pharmaceuticals as the price system stabilizes following the completion of centralized procurement [2][3]. - For instance, leading Chinese companies in surgical robotics are projected to secure 120 new overseas orders by 2025, positioning them among the global leaders, despite their market capitalization being only 1.4% of the global leaders [2][3]. Group 3: Technological Trends - AI in healthcare and brain-computer interfaces are identified as key technological trends reshaping industry competitiveness, with AI being widely applied in imaging diagnostics, pathology analysis, surgical robotics, and smart wearable devices [4]. - The number of approved medical devices for brain-computer interfaces in China has exceeded the total for the previous two years within the first four months of 2025, with B-end procurement volume increasing by 200%, indicating an acceleration in commercialization [4].