瑞银：短期中国出现AI泡沫概率低 看好半导体与机器人上游产业链

Group 1: AI Market Outlook - The probability of an AI bubble in China is significantly lower than in the US, with no clear signs of an AI bubble emerging in the short term [2][3] - Chinese leading AI firms rely on cash flow from parent companies for R&D, making funding sources more sustainable compared to the US [2] - Capital expenditure by major Chinese internet companies is pragmatic and cautious, with a projected capital expenditure of approximately 400 billion RMB in 2025, only one-tenth of that of their US counterparts, yet achieving similar model capabilities [2][3] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor market is expected to reach over $700 billion by 2025, with projections of $1 trillion by 2026, driven by AI demand [5][6] - Semiconductor equipment investments are anticipated to grow by 10% in 2026, benefiting from advanced process production demands [6] - Domestic semiconductor companies are increasingly listing in Hong Kong, which may enhance their valuation and attract overseas talent [6] Group 3: Humanoid Robotics Sector - Global shipments of humanoid robots are projected to reach 30,000 units by 2026, with potential market size reaching $1.4 to $1.7 trillion by 2050 [7] - The industry is still in its early stages, facing challenges such as the lack of large-scale datasets for training and the absence of specialized AI models for humanoid robots [7][8] - The upstream supply chain, including components like screws, sensors, and core chips, is expected to benefit first from the growth in humanoid robotics, while midstream manufacturers face cash flow pressures [7][8]