吴其伦：中国经济正从传统要素驱动全面转向创新驱动、技术驱动与绿色驱动

Core Insights - The 2025 China economy is projected to show strong resilience and risk management capabilities, with GDP growth exceeding 5.2%, equivalent to the annual total of a medium-sized economy, positioning it among the leading global economies [3][9] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth has risen to 53.5%, indicating a solidifying role of domestic demand as the main engine of growth [3][9] - The macroeconomic indicators are improving, with the urban unemployment rate stabilizing at 5.2%, core CPI showing continuous growth, and foreign exchange reserves maintaining at $3.3 trillion, reflecting China's strong position in the global supply chain [3][9] Economic Transformation - The structure of growth drivers has undergone a historic transformation, with a significant shift towards innovation-driven, technology-driven, and green-driven development, moving away from traditional factor-driven growth [4][11] - China is expected to enter the top ten of the global innovation index in 2025, with innovation clusters in Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and Guangzhou leading globally, indicating a leap in the overall effectiveness of the innovation system [4][10] - The modern industrial system, centered on new productive forces, is rapidly taking shape, with strong exports in new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products, alongside accelerated development in strategic emerging fields like AI and biomanufacturing [4][10][11] Domestic and International Market Dynamics - Domestic demand is increasingly foundational to economic growth, supported by government initiatives to boost consumption and a new income increase plan for urban and rural residents, aimed at enhancing social security and increasing disposable income [4][11] - China is transitioning into a new phase of institutional openness, extending the dimensions of openness from the flow of goods and factors to deeper aspects such as rules, regulations, and standards, thereby creating a market-oriented, rule-of-law, and international business environment [5][11] - Despite global uncertainties, China maintains a strong attraction for global resources, positioning itself confidently within the global economic system and contributing to the improvement of global governance structures [6][11] Confidence in Economic Outlook - The optimistic view of the Chinese economy is based on solid data, clear industrial logic, and strategic planning, reflecting a rational confidence rather than blind optimism [6][12] - This confidence is rooted in the innovation of enterprises and the hard work of laborers, emphasizing the importance of collaboration among government, market, and enterprises to navigate the evolving economic landscape [6][12]