宋雪涛谈中国经济“三支箭”：需求端、供给端改革，房地产周期企稳转型

Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of "investing in people" as a direct way to improve microeconomic conditions, with three main strategies proposed to enhance consumer spending and economic activity [1][6]. Group 1: Strategies for Economic Improvement - The first strategy is to increase disposable income for the public through enhanced transfer payments, particularly targeted subsidies for specific groups [3][8]. - The second strategy involves improving public services to encourage consumer spending, addressing disparities not only between urban and rural areas but also across different industries and income levels [3][8]. - The third strategy focuses on increasing investment in consumer infrastructure and releasing supply in the service sector to create new consumption scenarios [3][8]. Group 2: Economic Reforms and Policies - The first arrow of economic reform is aimed at demand-side changes, while the second arrow targets supply-side reforms [3][8]. - A policy change is set to gradually eliminate export tax rebates for batteries, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, starting April 1. This is seen as a way to allow successful companies to retain profits domestically, which can then be reinvested into the economy [3][8]. - The third arrow pertains to the transformation of the real estate sector, which has been in a downward cycle since 2021, with adjustments ongoing for seven to eight years [3][8]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Insights - Some second-tier cities are reportedly stabilizing, with Urumqi showing a capital return rate of 4%, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [4][9]. - As rental yields and mortgage rates increase, a stabilization in the real estate market is anticipated, which would signify a gradual completion of the economic transformation [4][9].